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He noted that one of the core challenges in decision-making lies in the uncertainty of future events, which are directly shaped by the decisions made today. Prof. Yos emphasized that uncertainty is, paradoxically, the only certainty in an ever-changing world.

His oration covered the fundamentals of decision-making in a business context and how to address uncertainty through systemic approaches—specifically, scenario planning and system dynamics modelling.

According to him, strategic decision-making is not only about the final outcome but also about the quality of the decision-making process itself.

“There are two aspects to establish when making a decision,” he explained, “what to do, and how to do it.”

To help understand the complexity of uncertain environments, Prof. Yos introduced the Cynefin Framework, a conceptual model that classifies situations into four domains: chaotic, complex, complicated, and simple. Each domain requires a distinct approach, particularly in contexts such as pandemics, climate change, or technological disruption. He emphasized the importance of systems thinking—the understanding that a system is a collection of interconnected components forming a unified whole.

Scenario planning, he explained, is a strategic planning technique that goes beyond historical data to identify early signals of change and explore a range of possible futures. This method allows organizations to develop adaptive strategies that can respond flexibly to diverse and unpredictable conditions.

An application of this approach was presented through a capital market study, where scenarios were developed based on interviews with multiple stakeholders and linked to investor segmentation. The results demonstrated how combining future projections with investor behavior could produce more accurate and targeted market strategies.

Prof. Yos also elaborated on the use of modelling and simulation as analytical tools to accelerate the problem-solving process. He illustrated this using a port system model involving complex variables such as dwelling time, vessel capacity, and investment levels. Through simulation, decision-makers can evaluate policy outcomes and their potential impact before implementation in the real world.

In closing, Prof. Yos outlined three key points about decision-making in business, particularly under conditions of uncertainty: first the importance of decision-making: Strategic choices determine both short- and long-term success and require careful selection from multiple alternatives aligned with the organization’s goals.

Second, focus on the process, not just outcomes: “Strategic decisions are long-term, high-impact, and often made under uncertainty. Therefore, the process behind them must be robust and grounded in systems thinking, which views the organization as part of a larger system,” he stated.

Third, building resilience through scenario planning and simulation modelling: These approaches enhance decision quality and strengthen organizational resilience by anticipating dynamic changes and shaping more adaptive, future-ready strategies.

Reporter: Iko Sutrisko Prakasa Lay (Mathematics, 2021)